NRF'S State of Retail & the Consumer Announced its Annual 2023 Retail Forecast, Focused on Inflation, the Labor Market & More

MARCH 31, 2023

CONTACT: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

(202) 680-9262

Tallahassee, FL – The Florida Retail Federation (FRF) announced today that 2023 is poised to see retail sales growth despite concerns over inflation. A forecast report released this week by the National Retail Federation forecasted retail growth between 4% and 6% this year, amounting to between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion in sales.

"Retailers continue to find ways to help Floridians get more out of their hard earned money," shared Scott Shalley, president and CEO of the FRF. "Many shoppers are taking advantage of retail sales and promotions due to the lingering impacts of inflation. Floridians can help support their communities and neighbors by shopping at local retailers. Our local stores are committed to providing Florida families with the best value possible."

Despite inflation remaining between 3% and 3.5% on goods and services this year, the report reveals the pressure should trend down beyond this year. The impacts of inflation could have contributed to the nation's slowed economic growth. The estimated full-year GDP growth is at 1% for 2023 compared to the 2.1% increase in 2022.

The annual retail sales forecast incorporates nationwide employment trends, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit and previous retail sales. In order to focus on "core retail" sales, the forecast excluded the retail sales of automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants. 

Despite the nation's resilient labor market, the report reveals a deceleration in job growth nationwide as a result of slower economic activity. Estimates reveal that the national unemployment rate could exceed 4% before next year.

Non-store and online sales are also included in the forecast total, expecting growth between 10% and 12% in 2023, totaling between $1.41 trillion to $1.43 trillion. Yet brick-and-mortar retail stores still remain a permanent fixture in the retail industry. The forecast accounts for the physical stores as the primary point of purchase for over 70% of retail sales.

The Florida Retail Federation encourages shoppers to "Find It In Florida" and shop at local retailers. Supporting Florida retailers helps boost the local economy and support jobs in the community. Learn more about the "Find It In Florida" program at the website

For more information on the 2021 Retail Sales Forecast of the National Retail Federation, visit: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-forecasts-2023-retail-sales-grow-between-4-and-6.

ABOUT THE FLORIDA RETAIL FEDERATION
The Florida Retail Federation is the statewide trade association representing retailers -- the businesses that sell directly to consumers. Florida retailers contribute $239 billion to the economy every year and support 3.6 million jobs for Florida families, or nearly one-third of all jobs in the state. Florida retailers pay more than $69 billion in wages annually and collect and remit more than $35 billion in sales taxes for Florida’s government each year.

ABOUT THE NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.

###

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
JANUARY 31, 2023
CONTACT: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (202) 680-9262

Tallahassee, FL – No broken hearts this Valentine's Day, as retailers anticipate a nearly 10% increase in per-person spending this year as shoppers plan to spend $192.80 on average, according to the Florida Retail Federation. 

"Shoppers are excited to celebrate the meaningful relationships in their lives this Valentine's Day," said Scott Shalley, president and CEO of the Florida Retail Federation. “Florida retailers are ready to help find the perfect gift for your loved ones. Whether it's a friend, partner, spouse or family member, you can 'Find It In Florida' and discover the perfect way to say 'I love you'."

Suni

2023 marks the second-highest year on record for Valentine's Day since 2004. A recent survey from the National Retail Federation reveals that the special holiday occasion has consumers embracing spending on friends and loved ones with a forecast of $26 billion, up from $23.9 billion last year.

With more than half (52%) of consumers planning to partake in the festivities, the focus of Valentine's Day has expanded beyond significant others and family members with shoppers looking to honor the other meaningful relationships in their lives. 

As the average shopper plans to spend more this year, the $17 per-person increase from $175.41 the previous year is attributed to additional gift purchases for pets, friends, co-workers and classmates.

Over half of Floridians plan to purchase their gifts online (35%) or at a department store (34%), while others will shop at discount stores (31%) or specialty stores (18%).

The top five Valentine's Day gifts shoppers plan to buy this year include: 

  • Candy - 57%
  • Greeting cards - 40% 
  • Flowers - 37%
  • An evening out - 32%
  • Jewelry - 21%

While more than a quarter (32%) of shoppers plan to gift a special experience, more than $5.5 billion is forecasted to be spent on jewelry and $4.4 billion spent on a special night out. 

While shoppers look for the perfect Valentine, "Find It In Florida" and shop local retailers. Supporting local retail boosts the local economy and supports community businesses. Learn more about the "Find It In Florida" program at the website

For more information on the predictions of the National Retail Federation, visit: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/consumers-plan-increase-valentines-day-spending-nearly-26-billion

ABOUT THE FLORIDA RETAIL FEDERATION
The Florida Retail Federation is the statewide trade association representing retailers -- the businesses that sell directly to consumers. Florida retailers contribute $239 billion to the economy every year and support 3.6 million jobs for Florida families, or nearly one-third of all jobs in the state. Florida retailers pay more than $69 billion in wages annually and collect and remit more than $35 billion in sales taxes for Florida’s government each year.

ABOUT THE NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.

###

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
NOVEMBER 22, 2022

CONTACT: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
(202) 680-9262

Tallahassee, FL –  With Thanksgiving just around the corner, the Florida Retail Federation (FRF) announced more people than ever will participate in holiday shopping between Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. A recent survey revealed that an estimated 166.3 million shoppers will head to the store, a nearly 8 million increase in shoppers over 2021.

"Floridians who are feeling the impacts of inflation and looking to cut costs this holiday season can 'Find It In Florida' and save on purchases at their local retailers," said Scott Shalley, president and CEO of the Florida Retail Federation. “With a record-breaking amount of shoppers expected, our Florida retailers have staffed up stores to help you save while you fulfill your holiday shopping list."

Over two-thirds (69%) of consumers plan to shop during Thanksgiving weekend. An increase in in-store traffic during the Thanksgiving holiday can be attributed to customers looking to take advantage of value pricing. Most plan to take advantage of Black Friday savings with 69% (114.9 million) of consumers planning to shop that day. The second most popular day remains Cyber Monday as 38% (63.9 million) of shoppers will search for savings online.

Some of the reasons consumers are shopping over the weekend include:

  • Deals are too good to pass up - 59%
  • Holiday tradition - 27%  
  • Something to do  - 22%

About 60% of shoppers began purchasing holiday items in early November. More than half (54%) of shoppers plan to purchase gift cards, with total spending expected to reach $28.6 billion. Top gift cards include restaurant (27%), department store (26%) and bank-issued cards (25%).

The 2022 top holiday gifts that consumers plan to purchase are: 

  • Clothing or accessories - 55%
  • Gift cards - 45% 
  • Toys - 37%
  • Books or other media - 33%
  • Food & candy - 31%
  • Personal care or beauty items - 26%
  • Electronics - 24%
  • Home décor or furnishings - 21%
  • Jewelry - 20%
  • Sporting goods or leisure items - 17%

Barbie and LEGOs continue to hold first place as the hottest items for girls and boys for the third year.

The most popular toys for girls and boys in 2022, ranked, include: 

Girls

  1. Barbie
  2. Doll
  3. LOL Dolls
  4. LEGO
  5. Makeup
  6. Squishmallows
  7. American Girl / Apparel*
  8. Disney-related items
  9. Baby doll
  10. Cell phone / Magic Mixies*

*Choices tied in ranking

Boys

  1. LEGO
  2. Hot Wheels
  3. Cars/trucks
  4. PlayStation
  5. Video games
  6. Pokémon
  7. Nerf
  8. Electric/RC cars
  9. Dinosaurs
  10. Xbox

This holiday season, when shoppers "Find It In Florida" and shop local retailers, they help boost the local economy and support community businesses. Learn more about the "Find It In Florida" program at the website.

For more information on the predictions of the National Retail Federation, visit: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/record-1663-million-shoppers-expected-during-thanksgiving-weekend.

ABOUT THE FLORIDA RETAIL FEDERATION
The Florida Retail Federation is the statewide trade association representing retailers -- the businesses that sell directly to consumers. Florida retailers provide one out of every five jobs in the state, pay more than $49 billion in wages annually, and collect and remit more than $20 billion in sales taxes for Florida’s government each year.

ABOUT THE NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.

###

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
NOVEMBER 7, 2022

CONTACT: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
(202) 680-9262

Tallahassee, FL –  Floridians are already preparing for the holidays as shoppers stock up on gifts and seasonal items. According to a recent survey by the National Retail Federation, despite the concerns about inflation, 62% of shoppers believe that it is important to spend on holiday gifts and celebrations. In fact, the holidays are poised to be even more festive as 91% of shoppers plan to celebrate this year. 

Nearly half of consumers (46%) started purchasing items off their holiday lists before November. Most shoppers (60%) have strategized to spread out their gift-shopping budget to avoid additional stress during the holiday season. 

"The winter holiday season is an extra special time for Floridians to exchange gifts and celebrate with their family and friends," shares Scott Shalley, president and CEO of the Florida Retail Federation. "During this season of giving, Florida retailers are here to provide a stress-free shopping experience so you can focus on what matters most this holiday season, your loved ones. Remember to support your local retailers and Find it in Florida."

Many shoppers (44%) are feeling the pressure of rising costs and limited availability, purchasing holiday gifts and other items early in order to avoid the possibility of products becoming more expensive. 

Additional reasons consumers are shopping early this holiday season include:

  • To avoid the stress of last-minute shopping - 43%
  • To avoid crowds - 42%
  • Prices and promotions are too good to pass up - 39%
  • To avoid missing out on specific items - 32%

This year's holiday retail sales are forecasted to grow between 6% and 8% during November and December with sales reaching between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion, over 2021. Consumers will spend an average of $832.84 on gifts and holiday items including decorations and food. 

Gift cards remain the top gift as 54% of shoppers listed them as the highest on their wish list. Other top gifts include:

  • Clothing and accessories - 49%
  • Books and other media - 30%
  • Electronics - 24%
  • Home decor - 23%
  • Jewelry - 21%
  • Personal care - 20%
  • Sporting goods - 18%
  • Home improvement - 17%
  • Other - 7%

While e-commerce remains strong this year, with 56% of shoppers planning to purchase items online, Floridians have returned to in-store purchases to take advantage of the traditional holiday shopping experience. This year's expected household shift to in-store shopping has caused a decrease in e-commerce purchases compared to the 57% of consumers who planned to shop online in 2021.

This year’s other top holiday shopping destinations include: 

  • Discount stores - 48%
  • Department stores - 47%
  • Grocery stores - 45%
  • Clothing & accessories stores - 31%
  • Local retail stores or small businesses - 24%
  • Electronics store - 20%
  • Crafts store - 17%
  • Other specialty stores - 12%
  • Drug store - 12%
  • Thrift store - 12%
  • Outlet store - 11%
  • Catalog - 7%
  • Other - 3%

This holiday season, when shoppers "Find It In Florida" and shop local retailers, they help boost the local economy and support community businesses. Learn more about the "Find It In Florida" program at the website

For more information on the predictions of the National Retail Federation, visit: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-predicts-healthy-holiday-sales-consumers-navigate-economic.

ABOUT THE FLORIDA RETAIL FEDERATION
The Florida Retail Federation is the statewide trade association representing retailers -- the businesses that sell directly to consumers. Florida retailers provide one out of every five jobs in the state, pay more than $49 billion in wages annually, and collect and remit more than $20 billion in sales taxes for Florida’s government each year.

ABOUT THE NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.

###

Page 1 of 29

Contact Us

+1(850)222-4082
Florida Retail Federation
227 South Adams St.
Tallahassee, FL 32301
info@frf.org