National Retail Sales Growth Expected Between 4%-6% This Year Despite Inflationary Concerns

NRF’S State of Retail & the Consumer Announced its Annual 2023 Retail Forecast, Focused on Inflation, the Labor Market & More

MARCH 31, 2023

CONTACT: Amanda Bevis

(202) 680-9262

Tallahassee, FL – The Florida Retail Federation (FRF) announced today that 2023 is poised to see retail sales growth despite concerns over inflation. A forecast report released this week by the National Retail Federation forecasted retail growth between 4% and 6% this year, amounting to between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion in sales.

“Retailers continue to find ways to help Floridians get more out of their hard earned money,” shared Scott Shalley, president and CEO of the FRF. “Many shoppers are taking advantage of retail sales and promotions due to the lingering impacts of inflation. Floridians can help support their communities and neighbors by shopping at local retailers. Our local stores are committed to providing Florida families with the best value possible.”

Despite inflation remaining between 3% and 3.5% on goods and services this year, the report reveals the pressure should trend down beyond this year. The impacts of inflation could have contributed to the nation’s slowed economic growth. The estimated full-year GDP growth is at 1% for 2023 compared to the 2.1% increase in 2022.

The annual retail sales forecast incorporates nationwide employment trends, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit and previous retail sales. In order to focus on “core retail” sales, the forecast excluded the retail sales of automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants. 

Despite the nation’s resilient labor market, the report reveals a deceleration in job growth nationwide as a result of slower economic activity. Estimates reveal that the national unemployment rate could exceed 4% before next year.

Non-store and online sales are also included in the forecast total, expecting growth between 10% and 12% in 2023, totaling between $1.41 trillion to $1.43 trillion. Yet brick-and-mortar retail stores still remain a permanent fixture in the retail industry. The forecast accounts for the physical stores as the primary point of purchase for over 70% of retail sales.

The Florida Retail Federation encourages shoppers to “Find It In Florida” and shop at local retailers. Supporting Florida retailers helps boost the local economy and support jobs in the community. Learn more about the “Find It In Florida” program at the website

For more information on the 2021 Retail Sales Forecast of the National Retail Federation, visit:

The Florida Retail Federation is the statewide trade association representing retailers — the businesses that sell directly to consumers. Florida retailers contribute $239 billion to the economy every year and support 3.6 million jobs for Florida families, or nearly one-third of all jobs in the state. Florida retailers pay more than $69 billion in wages annually and collect and remit more than $35 billion in sales taxes for Florida’s government each year.

The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies.